A non-linear analysis of Gibson's paradox in the Netherlands, 1800-2012

This paper adopts a multivariate, non-linear framework to analyse Gibson’s paradox in the Netherlands over the period 1800-2012. Specifically, SSA (singular spectrum) and MSSA (multichannel singular spectrum) techniques are used. It is shown that changes in monetary policy regimes or volatility in the price of gold by themselves cannot account for the behaviour of government bond yields and prices in the Netherlands over the last 200 years. However, the inclusion of changes in the real rate of return on capital, M1, primary credit rate, expected inflation, and money purchasing power enables a nonlinear model to account for a sizeable percentage of the total variance of Dutch bond yields

Robustness of the CUSUM and CUSUM-of-Squares Tests to Serial Correlation, Endogeneity and Lack of Structural Invariance. Some Monte Carlo Evidence

This paper investigates by means of Monte Carlo techniques the robustness of the CUSUM and CUSUM-of-squares tests (Brown et al., 1975) to serial correlation, endogeneity and lack of structural invariance. Our findings suggest that these tests perform better in the context of a dynamic model of the ADL type, which is not affected by serial correlation or nonpredetermined regressors even if over-specified. In this case, the empirical sizes of both tests are close to the nominal ones, whether a stationary or a cointegration environment is considered. The CUSUM-of-squares test is to be preferred, as it is very powerful to detect changes in the conditional model parameters, whether or not the variance of the regression error is included in the set of parameters shifting, especially towards the end of the sample.CUSUM and CUSUM-of-squares tests, Parameter instability, Structural invariance, Marginal and conditional processes, ADL model

Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area

This paper analyses the dynamic effects of fiscal imbalances in a given EMU member state on the borrowing costs of other countries in the euro area. The estimation of a multivariate, multi-country time series model (specifically a Global VAR, or GVAR) using quarterly data for the EMU period suggests that euro-denominated government yields are strongly linked with each other. However, financial markets seem to be able to discriminate among different issuers. Consequently, fiscal imbalances in Italy and in other peripheral countries should be closely monitored by their EMU partners and the European institutions.Global VAR methodology, fiscal spillovers, euro area, public debt

Panel Data Tests of PPP. A Critical Overview

This paper reviews panel unit root and cointegration tests in the context of PPP. It highlights various drawbacks of existing methods. First, unit root tests suffer from severe size distortions in the presence of negative moving average errors. Second, the common demeaning procedure to correct for the bias resulting from homogeneous cross-sectional dependence is not effective; more worryingly, it introduces cross-correlation when it is not already present. Third, standard corrections for the case of heterogeneous cross-sectional dependence do not generally produce consistent estimators. Fourth, if there is between-group correlation in the innovations, the SURE estimator is affected by similar problems to FGLS methods, and does not necessarily outperform OLS. Finally, cointegration between different groups in the panel could also be a source of size distortions. We offer some empirical guidelines to deal with these problems, but conclude that panel methods are unlikely to solve the PPP puzzle.Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Panel unit root and cointegration tests, Cross-sectional dependence

The Euro and Inflation Uncertainty in the European Monetary Union

This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in twelve EMU countries. A time-varying GARCH model is estimated to distinguish between short-run and steady-state inflation uncertainty. The effects of the introduction of the Euro in 1999 are then examined introducing a dummy variable. Overall, it appears that post-1999 steady-state inflation has generally remained stable, steady-state inflation uncertainty and inflation persistence have both increased, and the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty has broken down in many countries. When the break dates are determined endogenously, the adjustment is found to have taken place before the introduction of the EuroInflation; Inflation Uncertainty; Inflation Persistence; Time-Varying Parameters; GARCH models; ECB; EMU

Using Chebyshev Polynomials to Approximate Partial Differential Equations

This paper suggests a simple method based on a Chebyshev approximation at Chebyshev nodes to approximate partial differential equations. It consists in determining the value function by using a set of nodes and basis functions. We provide two examples: pricing a European option and determining the best policy for shutting down a machine. The suggested method is flexible, easy to programme and efficient. It is also applicable in other fields, providing efficient solutions to complex systems of partial differential equations.European options, Chebyshev polynomial approximation, Chebyshev nodes

Chebyshev polynomial approximation to approximate partial differential equations

This pa per suggests a simple method based on Chebyshev approximation at Chebyshev nodes to approximate partial differential equations. The methodology simply consists in determining the value function by using a set of nodes and basis functions. We provide two examples. Pricing an European option and determining the best policy for chatting down a machinery. The suggested method is flexible, easy to program and efficient. It is also applicable in other fields, providing efficient solutions to complex systems of partial differential equations.European Options, Chebyshev Polynomial Approximation, Chebyshev Nodes

Price Discovery and Trade Fragmentation in a Multi-Market Environment: Evidence from the MTS System

This paper proposes new metrics for the process of price discovery on the main electronic trading platform for euro-denominated government securities. Analysing price data on daily transactions for 107 bonds over a period of twenty-seven months, we find a greater degree of price leadership of the dominant market when our measures (as opposed to the traditional price discovery metrics) are used. We also present unambiguous evidence that a market's contribution to price discovery is crucially affected by the level of trading activity. The implications of these empirical findings are discussed in the light of the debate about the possible restructuring of the regulatory framework for the Treasury bond market in Europe.Price discovery, liquidity, MTS system

Price Formation on the EuroMTS Platform

This paper examines the process of price discovery in the MTS system, which builds on the parallel quoting of euro-denominated government securities on a number of (relatively large) domestic markets and on a (relatively small) European marketplace (EuroMTS). Using twenty-seven months of daily data for 107 pairs of bonds, we present unambiguous evidence that trades on EuroMTS have a sizeable informational content.MTS system, price discovery

Stock Market Integration between three CEECs, Russia and the UK

This paper estimates a tri-variate VAR-GARCH(1,1)-in-mean model to examine linkages between the stock markets of three Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), specifically the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland, and both the UK and Russia. The adopted framework allows to analyse interdependence by estimating volatility spillovers, and also contagion by testing for possible shifts in the transmission of volatility following the introduction of the euro and EU accession. Further evidence on possible changes in the transmission mechanism (namely, on whether there is contagion) can be obtained by examining the conditional correlations implied by the estimated model over different time periods. The empirical findings suggest that there is significant co-movement (interdependence) of these CEEC markets with both the Russian and the UK ones. Furthermore, whilst the introduction of the euro has had mixed effects, EU accession has resulted in an increase in volatility spillovers between the three CEECs considered and the UK (contagion).Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), volatility spillovers, interdependence, contagion, VAR-GARCH-in-mean model